During the next six months there could be strong evidence of a shift in secular trends. If the S&P makes a lower low and falls below its 40-month moving average then it has likely fallen into a new secular bear market.

This has incredibly bullish implications for precious metals and especially if the dollar makes a major peak in the next 12 months. Gold leads the dollar and so if Gold can break above $2100, it’s likely a signal that the dollar will make a significant peak.

The best moves in Gold and gold stocks have come during secular bear markets in stocks. The only one that did not was in 1964-1968 in which the S&P 500 had only a modest rise and was outperformed by the gold stocks.

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