Wall Street will be rooting for the home team at this year's Super Bowl, and not simply because New York is home to the nation's capital markets.
Call it the Super Bowl Indicator, a forecast that markets will post gains for the year, if a team from the old National Football League (NFC division) wins.
At least that's what some economists think might help guide your views on the economy. And it could be better than the often complex econometric models that aren't always very accurate.
But that's not the only odd economic indicator that savvy investors are turning to that they can't find on their Bloomberg terminals.
Bike Fatality Rates
The Concept: Perhaps the gloomiest of economic indicators is the bicycle fatality indicator, which increase during hard times.
The Proof: In the U.K., the Department for Transport said fatalities jumped 12 percent year-on-year as austerity measures took effect in 2011. Cycling deaths also surged 58 percent during the Great Depression, before retreating.
Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Cover Indicator
The Concept: The nationality of the woman chosen for Sports Illustrated's annual swim shoot issue dictates how American markets will perform over the year. If an American is chosen, the concept goes, the S&P 500 will outperform historical returns.
The Proof: Russian born Irina Shayk appeared on the 2011 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit cover, and markets have had difficulty remaining in the green since the year's open.
Big Mac Index
The Concept: This index compares currency exchange rates in different countries based on the cost of a Big Mac. The index uses purchasing power parity to explain whether a currency is over or under valued at its current price.
The Proof: The Economist publishes this index annually and it shows a strong correlation between the dollar price of a Big Mac and GDP per person. The Economist says that simply comparing prices is irrelevant, as labor costs vary greatly by country.
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See Also:
- Philly Fed's Plosser Sees 8% Unemployment By The End Of The Year
- CREDIT SUISSE: The Shrinking Employment-Population Ratio Is Bad News For The Economy
- The China Bull / Bear Debate Continues
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